Please join the Commerce Research Library in welcoming the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Senior Analyst for Middle East and North Africa, Keren Uziyel. She will discuss EIU’s outlook and analysis in the following areas:

• Outlook for Israel and its economy: The war will have significant fiscal and growth effects for Israel in the short term. Progress with longer-term priorities will be delayed. The economy will fall into a recession during the war as the country operates on a war footing and a significant share of the labor force is called to do military duty. Nevertheless, the economy will continue to function during the war.
• Outlook for the broader region and longer-term implications: The Israel-Hamas war will have long-term security and diplomatic implications. The conflict will set back Israel's ability to further expand its regional ties; further normalization will be delayed but key areas of common interest should help restore/progress relations in the longer term again, especially with Gulf economies.
• Global implications: Contained conflict will have limited impact beyond states neighboring Israel. An escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict or multi-front proxy war would have disastrous consequences and a major challenge for the global economy. If commercial shipping or oil export routes in the Gulf are blocked, we would expect a massive surge in international energy prices with a knock on impact on global inflation, monetary policy and weaker global growth.

This presentation will be recorded and will be viewable later on this page.